Blog #5

http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2010/02/the-mathematics-of-clumpy-crime.html


The article “The Mathematics of Clumsy Crime” talks about a mathematical model; designed by mathematician Andrea Bertozzi of the University of California, Los Angeles; that describes and examines with close detail causes for criminal hotspots. At first I thought that such a model was not possible, because even though we regularly apply math and numbers in our daily lives (such as counting money), and even though numbers can describe situations and complicated physical phenomena (such as physics, chemistry, etc.) I never thought numbers or a mathematical formula could be used to describe, analyze and predict human behavior. However as weird as it may seem they did not only try the model out in San Fernando Valley with positive results, but the author goes over the main and most interesting points of the model, and they do coincide with the way a normal human being would behave. Some of these points are that criminal hot spots form when previous crimes attract more criminals to a neighborhood and that a house’s attractiveness increases if criminals have hit homes nearby. If many houses from the same neighborhood have been hit by criminals the whole area becomes provoking to criminals and a hot spot forms.
This means that his model is supported by good number (mathematical) theory, San Francisco Valley try-out, and thorough reason and explanation of every step and assumption on his model. This may be a new step for society. This model may prove that human behavior can be modeled by formulas and mathematical models. It may take time for us to get used to it and to completely understand it, but that is totally comprehendible. At first it was hard for humans to comprehend that the movement of objects, the basics of sound, light, temperature, etc. could be simplified by mathematical formulas, even though nowadays we take all these discoveries for granted.
This model can also tremendously help police agencies to combat crime in a more effective way. The most effective police agency is not the one that stops criminals after they commit crimes but before. And that is what this model will allow agencies all over the world to do (to certain extent). Mathematicians all over the world should take this model as an example, and try to model different types of human behavior (maybe suicidal behaviors, among others) which will significantly help society for the future.